Will SpaceX's HLS lander successfully land on the moon on the first attempt?
9
190Ṁ1982030
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Success in this case means that NASA deems the test was a safe landing, and rules that it meets the requirements for the Artemis program.
For the purposes of this market the HLS test vehicle will count as HLS.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will SpaceX put their HLS lander on the Moon by end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
66% chance
Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?
81% chance
Will Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
74% chance
When will SpaceX land on the moon?
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?
58% chance
Will SpaceX's HLS lander launch by 2025?
1% chance
Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025?
1% chance
What year will SpaceX land on the moon?