How many Successful Starship Splashdowns before successful Starship Catch?
6
1kแน12182027
4%
4-5
26%
6-7
28%
8-9
26%
10-11
8%
12-13
8%
Im counting flights 4, 5, 6, and 10 as successful splashdowns.
In this instance splashdowns after orbital launches would also count as splashdowns.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
88% chance
Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship in 2025?
1% chance
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
9/30/26
Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
4% chance
Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
70% chance