How many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
3
Ṁ1kṀ3152029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
69%
>= 35
51%
>= 40
32%
>= 50
By date of launches and landing, not the flight number that does the landing, so inclusive of refueling flights.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The current list has a March 2027 landing demo, which is the 18th flight on the list, but with "an unknown number of successful refueling flights will be required, estimated to be in the high teens". That would beat the 35 answer if it is 16 or fewer refueling flights and no additional flights not yet listed.