How many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
7
Ṁ1kṀ6052029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
78%
>= 35
61%
>= 40
41%
>= 50
By date of launches and landing, not the flight number that does the landing, so inclusive of refueling flights.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
The current list has a March 2027 landing demo, which is the 18th flight on the list, but with "an unknown number of successful refueling flights will be required, estimated to be in the high teens". That would beat the 35 answer if it is 16 or fewer refueling flights and no additional flights not yet listed.
People are also trading
Related questions
How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
How many Starships will land on the Moon, before one lands on Mars?
Will Starship go to the Moon before 2027?
2% chance
How many starships will be launched before 2030?
131
How many Starship launches will occur in 2027?
When will Starship land on a launch pad?
Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
How many Starship launches will occur in 2028?
What year will Starship launch at least as many times as Falcon 9?
How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?
308