Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, during Starship Flight 15, SpaceX makes an active attempt to catch the Starship upper stage (commonly referred to as the "Ship" or second stage) using the mechanical "chopstick" arms of a launch/recovery tower (such as the Mechazilla tower at Starbase, Texas, or another landing site).

An active catch attempt is defined as the Ship guiding itself back to a landing/recovery tower during its final descent, performing a landing burn over or adjacent to the tower, with the active intention of capture.

• A successful catch resolves YES.

• An unsuccessful catch attempt (e.g., the Ship is actively guided to the tower but crashes, explodes, or misses the chopstick arms during the final capture sequence) resolves YES.

• If a flight director abort is triggered during descent, or if telemetry issues cause the vehicle to intentionally divert to a water splashdown rather than attempting a tower catch, this resolves NO.

• If SpaceX targets a water splashdown for the Ship from the outset of the mission, this resolves NO.

• If Flight 15 fails during ascent, orbit, or reentry before a catch attempt can be initiated, this resolves NO.

• If Starship Flight 15 has not launched by December 31, 2027, this market will resolve to NO.

Resolution will be verified using official SpaceX broadcasts, statements on the official SpaceX website, or reporting from reputable aerospace media (such as NASASpaceflight or Spaceflight Now).

Background

Following the successful catch of a Super Heavy booster on Flight 5, attention has increasingly shifted to the recovery of Starship's upper stage. While early rumors suggested a ship catch attempt could occur on Flight 14, SpaceX leadership indicated in August 2026 that the first ship catch attempt would be deferred for "a few months". Flight 14 serves as an orbital test targeting water splashdowns, positioning Flight 15 (utilizing Booster 22 and Ship 42) as the earliest likely candidate for a physical recovery attempt of the ship stage at the launch tower.

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