Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
145
Ṁ3.5kṀ180k
Nov 4
98.8%
Oklahoma
98.8%
West Virginia
98.8%
Alabama
98.8%
Wyoming
97%
Kentucky
95%
Arkansas
94%
Mississippi
94%
Idaho
94%
South Dakota
94%
Tennessee
94%
Montana
94%
Louisiana
89%
Florida (Special)
83%
South Carolina
72%
Nebraska
64%
Kansas
57%
Iowa
41%
Maine
38%
Texas
38%
Ohio (Special)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

US Politics
Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
66% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
7% chance
Will the republican party win the 2026 texas gubernatorial election?
77% chance
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
89% chance
Will Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?
8% chance
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2030 elections?
52% chance
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
78% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
Sort by:
opened a Ṁ250 NO at 86% order

Limit orders on Florida, South Dakota and South Carolina!

The Democratic nominee in Idaho dropped out of the race.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/28/idaho-democrat-david-roth-ends-campaign-for-us-senate-seat-held-by-risch/

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

People are also trading

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
66% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
7% chance
Will the republican party win the 2026 texas gubernatorial election?
+6% 1d77% chance
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
89% chance
Will Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?
8% chance
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2030 elections?
-4% 1d52% chance
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
78% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)