Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
149
Ṁ3.5kṀ180k
Nov 4
98.8%
Alabama
98.8%
Wyoming
98.6%
Oklahoma
98.6%
West Virginia
98%
Kentucky
97%
Idaho
95%
Arkansas
95%
South Dakota
95%
Tennessee
93%
Louisiana
93%
Montana
90%
Mississippi
88%
Florida (Special)
80%
South Carolina
72%
Nebraska
62%
Kansas
59%
Iowa
40%
Maine
36%
Texas
34%
Michigan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

Politics
US Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
64% chance
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
90% chance
Will Democrats win 53 seats or more in the 2026 Senate elections?
36% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
7% chance
Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up Senate seats in 2026? [Sabato's Crystal Ball]
43% chance
If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
79% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
Sort by:
opened a Ṁ250 NO at 86% order

Limit orders on Florida, South Dakota and South Carolina!

The Democratic nominee in Idaho dropped out of the race.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/28/idaho-democrat-david-roth-ends-campaign-for-us-senate-seat-held-by-risch/

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

People are also trading

Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
64% chance
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
90% chance
Will Democrats win 53 seats or more in the 2026 Senate elections?
36% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
7% chance
Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up Senate seats in 2026? [Sabato's Crystal Ball]
43% chance
If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
79% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)