https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Alaska is most likely. See the market for live updates (164 traders, as of Nov 4, 2026).

Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?

164

Ṁ3.5kṀ220k

Nov 4

Alaska

Resolved

YES

Alabama

Resolved

YES

Arkansas

Resolved

YES

Idaho

Resolved

YES

Kentucky

Resolved

YES

Louisiana

Resolved

YES

Montana

Resolved

YES

Nebraska

Resolved

YES

Oklahoma

Resolved

YES

South Dakota

Resolved

YES

Tennessee

Resolved

YES

West Virginia

Resolved

YES

Wyoming

Resolved

YES

Florida (Special)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

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US Politics

2026 US Congressional Elections

2026 US Election

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opened a Ṁ250 NO at 86% order

Limit orders on Florida, South Dakota and South Carolina!

The Democratic nominee in Idaho dropped out of the race.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/28/idaho-democrat-david-roth-ends-campaign-for-us-senate-seat-held-by-risch/

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2030 elections?

50% chance

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