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MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
136
Ṁ3.4kṀ160k
Nov 4
97%
Wyoming
97%
Alabama
96%
West Virginia
96%
Idaho
96%
Oklahoma
96%
Tennessee
95%
Kentucky
94%
Arkansas
94%
Mississippi
94%
South Dakota
93%
Louisiana
91%
Montana
91%
Florida (Special)
86%
South Carolina
71%
Kansas
70%
Nebraska
58%
Iowa
46%
Texas
44%
Ohio (Special)
38%
Michigan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

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Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
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The Democratic nominee in Idaho dropped out of the race.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/28/idaho-democrat-david-roth-ends-campaign-for-us-senate-seat-held-by-risch/

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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