Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
124
Ṁ3.4kṀ140k
Nov 4
97%
Mississippi
95%
Tennessee
95%
Arkansas
95%
Alabama
95%
West Virginia
95%
Wyoming
95%
Idaho
94%
Oklahoma
94%
Montana
93%
South Dakota
92%
Louisiana
91%
Kentucky
85%
South Carolina
85%
Kansas
80%
Florida (Special)
67%
Nebraska
58%
Iowa
57%
Texas
44%
Ohio (Special)
43%
Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
42% chance
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
80% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
15% chance
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Who Will Lead The Senate after 2026 US Elections?
Will the Republican win Texas's 2026 Senate race, conditional on D/R nominees?
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?
39% chance
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
79% chance
Sort by:

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

People are also trading

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
42% chance
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
80% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
15% chance
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Who Will Lead The Senate after 2026 US Elections?
Will the Republican win Texas's 2026 Senate race, conditional on D/R nominees?
Republicans win a 2026 US Senate election in a state Kamala won?
39% chance
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
79% chance