Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the results of the U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. The market resolves YES if Democrats win 218 or more seats (a majority of the 435 total seats). The market resolves NO if Republicans win 218 or more seats. Resolution will be determined by official results from the House Clerk's office at https://clerk.house.gov/

Background

Following the 2024 elections, Republicans hold a 220-215 majority in the House. Democrats need to gain a net of three districts to win a majority in the chamber. Republicans can lose no more than two districts to retain a majority.

Democrats continue to believe the party remains favored to regain the House majority, especially because they need to gain only three seats — far fewer than the opposition party usually wins in midterm elections, especially when the president's job approval rating is as weak as Trump's is now. The president's party almost always loses ground in midterm House elections, as has happened in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections stretching back to 1938.

Considerations

Republicans this year are defending an unusually small number of House seats that either voted against President Donald Trump in 2024 or backed him only narrowly, meaning Democrats have fewer easy pickup opportunities against obviously vulnerable targets than is typical for the party out of the White House during a midterm election. House Republicans are defending eight seats that Trump lost in 2024, and 25 more that he carried with a vote total no more than 4 points higher than his national vote share.

This description was generated by AI.