Will AGI and the invasion of Taiwan occur within 12 months of one another?
14
Ṁ260Ṁ5432060
30%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if the emergence of AGI and the invasion of Taiwan occur within 1 calendar year (12 months) of each other.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China invade Taiwan by year's end?
8% chance
Contingent on Greenland invasion by USA, China invades Taiwan within 1 year?
25% chance
Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?
18% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
7% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
29% chance
In what month will China invade Taiwan?
Will china invade taiwan before 14 Jan 2026?
1% chance
What will be the warning signs for the invasion of Taiwan?
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
42% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
29% chance