Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year). This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging! See the other market for more detailed resolution criteria.
(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)
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@Nick332 this is a multiple choice question where only one option will resolve yes, so I cannot resolve single options to no until I pick the final answer.
I can confirm that 2025 will resolve no.
@ChrisMillsc5f7 yes I covered that in the description for the linked market which says:
A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this).