When will China invade Taiwan?
7
1kṀ9492050
3%
2025
10%
2026
15%
2027
10%
2028
6%
2029
10%
2030-2034
7%
2035-2039
6%
2040-2049
34%
Not before 2050
Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year). This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging!
(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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