In what month will China invade Taiwan?
18
1.2kṀ8382031
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
45%
43%
Never
4%
October 2027
4%
April 2028
Resolution criteria:
The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan*
Or
At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.
*The date that is reported within the articles rather than the date of publication of the articles, will be considered the invasion date.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
31% chance
China invades Taiwan before July
1% chance
When will China invade Taiwan
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by EOY 2025/beginning of year 2026?
9% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?
37% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
40% chance