In what month will China invade Taiwan?
World•China•China Taiwan potential conflict•Who does Xi think he is?
15
234
2031
0%
June 2022
0%
July 2022
0%
August 2022
0.5%
September 2022
1.2%
October 2022
0.5%
November 2022
0.5%
December 2022
0.5%
January 2023
0.5%
February 2023
0.5%
April 2023
1%
October 2023
0.8%
April 2024
0.6%
October 2024
0.8%
April 2025
0.6%
October 2025
0.8%
April 2026
0%
October 2026
49%
Never
0%
May 2024
0%
June 2024
Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. *The date that is reported within the articles rather than the date of publication of the articles, will be considered the invasion date.
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sold Ṁ0 of April 2024

I sold the shares when I learned the Parimutuel system, which may shift the odds over time, is used. It would be nice to have AMM for multi- choice as well.

answered
April 2027

@GiorgiGiorgi This is the best answer so far.

would be restricted to two “windows” of attack, from May to July and the month of October. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2535&context=nwc-review
Only 2 months of the year is it even possible because of the tides. April and October.
@BTE Fascinating, thank you. Anywhere I can look to read more?
& why 2023?

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