In what month will China invade Taiwan?
19
1.3kṀ1097
2031
50%
Other
41%
Never
2%
February 2026
1.9%
January 2026
1.5%
April 2028
1.3%
October 2027
Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. *The date that is reported within the articles rather than the date of publication of the articles, will be considered the invasion date.
Market context
World
China
China Taiwan potential conflict
Who does Xi think he is?
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some of these need resolving!

@SG some mana for you to make here 😆

Under what circumstances will this resolve to NEVER?

@JoshuaWilkes Maybe if China or Taiwan stop existing?

I sold the shares when I learned the Parimutuel system, which may shift the odds over time, is used. It would be nice to have AMM for multi- choice as well.

@GiorgiGiorgi This is the best answer so far.

would be restricted to two “windows” of attack, from May to July and the month of October. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2535&context=nwc-review
Only 2 months of the year is it even possible because of the tides. April and October.
@BTE Fascinating, thank you. Anywhere I can look to read more?
& why 2023?

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