Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?
Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?
14
1kṀ3422070
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If the war happens before the following metaculus question resolves, I'll use it:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
If the war happens after, I'll find some other measure of AI timelines.
I'm open to changing the resolution criteria. My goal is to get a sense of which effect is larger in the case of a China war: the supply chain disruptions to the global chip industry, or the boost that would come from massive military R&D.
If there is no war, the question will resolve N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
39% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
33% chance
Will AGI and the invasion of Taiwan occur within 12 months of one another?
29% chance
Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #1
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
50% chance
Will the US and China be at war with each other before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #2
If China invades Taiwan, will a nuclear war start?
9% chance
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
69% chance
Will China go to war with Taiwan before Israel goes to war with a nation in the middle east
25% chance