If the war happens before the following metaculus question resolves, I'll use it:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
If the war happens after, I'll find some other measure of AI timelines.
I'm open to changing the resolution criteria. My goal is to get a sense of which effect is larger in the case of a China war: the supply chain disruptions to the global chip industry, or the boost that would come from massive military R&D.
If there is no war, the question will resolve N/A.
1,000A Taiwan-China war would most likely be rather short, or at least too short to push AI stronger than the chip-troubles would brake. The expectation of the invasion is already spurring innovation in drone-warfare. https://rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com/p/sky-wars-the-race-for-drone-dominance?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email
Also CTO of Palantir now joining the US-army.
