Will Microsoft resolve it's "unhinged" ChatBot problem by April 1st, 2023?
9
76
190
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
YES

Stories such as the following are now becoming common, and it's created signficiant concern at Microsoft about their reputation:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/3ad39b/microsoft-bing-ai-unhinged-lying-berating-users

https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/15/23599072/microsoft-ai-bing-personality-conversations-spy-employees-webcams

Will prompt hackers still be succesfully generating negative publicity for Microsoft on April 1st 2023?

Methodology: Google search trends will be queried:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1676646600?hl=en-US&tz=480&geo=US&q=Bing+unhinged&sni=6

If the trend for this query on April 1st no more than 1/2 as high as the peak over the trailing 12 months as of April 1st 2023, then this market will resolve YES, otherwise it will resolve NO. If it's too close to call by my judgement, then I'll resolve NA.

Note: I will not use the dotted line projection to resolve the market. Only the solid line, tracked numbers. As such, the market will likely resolve a little time after April 1st.

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Isn’t the title opposite the description?

@JimHays Yea please clarify @RealityQuotient

@JacobPfau @JimHays Thanks, corrected. You both were correct.

@RealityQuotient I’m confused about the correction.

@JimHays What's the confusion?

@RealityQuotient “If the trend for this query on April 1st is at least 1/2 as high as the peak over the trailing 12 months as of April 1st 2023”.

Twice as high would be “at least half as high”, which would not be “under control”. Do you mean “no more than”?

@JimHays Fixed. Remind me never to make such a complicated to explain metric.

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