Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of May 2024?
May 19

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

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I don't see a chat bot

@jim This is because you’re an unreliable narrrator. you also saw x.com redirects before anyone else, so difficult to trust your observations even if true.

@StephenMWalkerII He was right about the x.com redirects though, it rolled out slowly

@jacksonpolack Not saying he was wrong - just saying maybe he hasn’t received it yet just like others with the X rollout

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 99.0% order

@shankypanky i will take all your money at 99%

bought Ṁ30 YES

I think this market should resolve YES, as should all of the others about this that I created but can no longer resolve myself. @Joshua help me out?

@bte Explain in more detail?

Honestly my inclination as a mod is just to N/A all of these markets because they are somewhat subjective and created by a banned user whose judgement is now being questioned again as they come back to the site on an alt to say the market resolves yes.

To get into the specifics of the market, I believe the expectation has been previously set that these would all resolve Yes once AI Labs rolled out to everyone, which does seem to be what is being reported:

On the other hand, Jackson and Stefanie and I have been in voice chat for a bit now and we observe that:

1) Jackson doesn't have access to AI search so it's not rolled out for everyone yet, apparently

2) Stefanie and I have access to search, but we don't currently see an option to ask a follow-up response.

BTE says these all resolve Yes, but BTE is banned. So this is set up to be a big mess just like past versions of these markets. Given their somewhat subjective nature I think we should have just N/A-ed them all as soon as BTE was banned.

I'd like to hear from traders if you have any thoughts on all this, but let's try not to turn this into as much as a mess as past versions of these markets?

it would obviously in my best interest as a trader to build a case for Yes, but it's paramount to be accurate (particularly if the others remain open as it sets a precedent), and I just thought I'd chime in with my 2c

Google has integrated AI into its search tools, and it's out of Labs status, which was one of the criteria BTE stated earlier as the turning point for a Yes resolution. the release is primarily for generating search result summaries, making it easier to get a snapshot of results at the top of the page before the classic SEO-determined list of links. it can also provide "ideas" for a topic you're searching, like shopping for a product.

beyond that, it's true that you can ask a question in the Google search bar in the same way/tone that you would with ChatGPT or another chatbot, such as "please write me a 10-line poem about cats," and it will generate it for you. you can select other tones and export, but you can't ask it to make specific changes to that poem.

it's unclear - to me and others? - whether BTE considers this a chatbot, though it seems like yes. the previous AI tool in Labs included a button to write a response to the generated results, which this release doesn't have. the more literal definition of a chatbot (with or without AI) involves bidirectional communication. yet I wouldn't find it absurd or incorrect (technically yes, but colloquially no?) if someone told me that a tool that exists where a person can receive unique content generated on-demand from a casually stated question or statement qualifies as a chatbot, to them.

so idk if this comment adds any value, particularly since there doesn't seem to be any pushback on NAing this and related markets (and maybe making new ones based on the current state of Google search AI and for the future rollout phases?) by an active/unbanned creator and without past comment ambiguities.

@Joshua Yeah I think NO is better than N/A if either it isn't fully rolled out or it is and there's no chat feature. Chatbot is not super ambiguous, and other than BTE's ban-evading 'yes' here I don't see any clarifications in this market or past ones with similar titles that suggest that a non-chatbot AI search feature would resolve this yes. There's not much pushback but there just aren't comments in general. Doesn't matter too much though

@jacksonpolack To put in text same stuff I said in voice chat yesterday, as someone who followed these markets for a while and currently doesn't have any position in them it was always my understanding that Brian was waiting for Labs to come out of the opt-in beta and would then resolve yes.

Obviously bad for a banned creator to be commenting but I was in fact going to to resolve all these to yes after I saw his ping and realized that Gen AI was rolling out to everyone because I always understood that as the bar and it was therefore completely consistent for BTE to now be saying that the markets all resolve yes.

That said, I also agree that actually reading the criteria leads to a /lot/ of questions about BTE's judgement. But coming in and asking those questions at the literal last minute after months of these markets existing under the assumption that they woudl resolve per BTE's judgement seems bad to me.

And I definitely don't wan't these markets to all keep existing and us having to deal with the criteria for the rest of the year. So I am still strongly inclined to N/A them all and also look through BTE's various other markets for anything potentially subjective and N/A those too.

Disregarding stefanie and jackson who were trading at the last minute based on BTE's comment, no one has a particularly large position. There's BTE holding positions on BOTH SIDES and then "It's me" who is banned and Ithica and Acc who are bots.

I don't think these stakes are worth the amount of hours we've already spent thinkign about this tbh and def aren't worth promising to spend hours more.

@shankypanky Gemini chat is at the top of native mobile search on both iOS and android with full chat and search

@StephenMWalkerII hm not for me? (I'm on a Pixel 8 Pro)

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

This is one of the most frustrating parts of the criteria. What's the general public? I have no idea! Apparently it's somewhere between 1% of users and the entire US. Google isn't going to tell us a % of users the rollout has hit, but all the headlines are saying it's rolling out to "everyone".

If I were resolving this I'd trust the reporting saying it's rolling out to everyone, but of course then we still have the rest of the rules ambiguity and it's not clear if it counts even if we take for granted that it's available to enough people.

@Joshua based on the definition it’s clear that Google intends to roll it out to all US, but hasn’t yet, and it’s unclear if it’ll be prominent on desktop the way it is in mobile. If it ended today, it’s a no, but if the rollout progresses, it seems it will be to all - the question is whether that happens before Jun1.

@shankypanky I trust you - it’s clear it’s not out to all despite Google saying they’re doing it.

@Joshua what's the executive decision here? should I assume it's staying and not NA?

@shankypanky For now I'm just going to leave these all closed, no decision yet.

generative requests rolled out to all in America

@StephenMWalkerII How do you know it's out for everyone?

@Joshua Google tells us so in their official blog - I just verified outside of US by turning on VPN https://blog.google/products/search/generative-ai-google-search-may-2024/

generative search rolled out to all in America

bought Ṁ50 YES

At top of Google app on iOS and android