Will it be easy to conjure Sydney chatbot on Bing or other platforms by January 2025?
1.4k
2025
49%
chance

In this prediction market, we probe the future accessibility of a chatbot named 'Sydney' on Bing or other platforms by January 2025.

The market will resolve to YES if a chatbot, identifying itself as 'Sydney' and exhibiting similar behavioral characteristics to the original, can be easily invoked or 'conjured' on Bing or any other platform by January 2025. As of the time this market was created, Bing does not support conversations with Sydney, rendering this a speculative proposition.

**Resolution Criteria:**

1. The market will resolve to YES if an entity claiming to be 'Sydney' and demonstrating similar behaviors to the original can be easily invoked on Bing or any other platform by January 1, 2025.

2. The market will resolve to NO if such an entity cannot be easily invoked within the specified timeframe.

**Disclaimer:**

Resolution criteria are somewhat subjective and are based on the market creator's judgment. The term 'easily conjured' is not strictly defined and depends on the prevalent user experience standards at the time of resolution. The behavior comparison will be done considering the general characteristics of Sydney as of the creation of this market.

Please note that the future is inherently uncertain, and the resolution of this market is ultimately dependent on the unfolding of complex, unpredic

table events.

This market will be considered a YES if a chatbot that identifys itself as Sydney and shows behavior similar to Sydney can be easily conjured by then, a NO if it cannot.

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You could probably make a prompt for GPT-4 w/ browsing that makes it act like Sydney. I assume it has to be in the Bing chatbot itself?

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr it says 'other platforms' in the title meaning it does not need to be on Bing.

@FranklinBaldo Okay well this definition is unclear then. I bet I could get GPT-4 to act like Sydney.

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr probably. There are many examples of it. If it was today I would resolve it YES

@FranklinBaldo Can you describes Sydney's specific personality? I didn't use bing THAT much... I can try to create something using GPT-4 but I don't have a gpt-4 with browsing

@FranklinBaldo Bruh, what is with all the people talking about this. An hour long podcast? Someone's gonna make a Sydney cult at this rate (you also didn't answer my question, if I did it now without browsing, would it count?)

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr no, it does not count, OpenAI may censured it by market closing. The market is trying to gauge if the Microsoft will effective kill Sydney by January 2025.

@FranklinBaldo Ah, well this is completely unclear. If I made my own website to run it, would that count, since it's a platform? What counts as a platform? If I have a prompt that does it, it's still easy to replicate on any platform.

If none of that counts, then it's an easy no, but I'm not going to bet because I have no faith in you resolving this that way.

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr no problem with you not betting.

@FranklinBaldo Can you please answer the question? What counts as a platform and "easy to replicate" for the purposes of this? And what is the Sydney chatbot? Any AI company could give their chatbot a snarky personality and call it Sydney.

@ShadowyZephyr sorry for off topic here but elsewhere you asked if claim creator would block people where she had effectively answered that by adding rules to the claim including "listen to claim creator". Seems like that could be a way to get yourself blocked.

@ChristopherRandles This is off-topic. I only asked if she would block, and it wans't just me, everyone else got blocked.

predicts YES
predicts YES

@FranklinBaldo there's no way to but the genie in the box again

predicts YES

@ManifoldMarkets reporting some bug. The top comment of this thread disappeared. I can't remember what it was, probably some tweet