Will Trump be in a US (state or federal) jail or prison at 12:01 AM on Election Day 2024? | Manifold

Will Trump be in a US (state or federal) jail or prison at 12:01 AM on Election Day 2024?

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resolved Nov 6

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

House arrest does not count.

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#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#2024 US Election

#Trump indictment(s)

#2024 Republican Primaries

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This result seems very inconsistent with the related market. People think there’s only a 20% chance that he’ll actually be incarcerated if he’s convicted by then? Seems implausible.

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