Will Trump be in a US (state or federal) jail or prison at 12:01 AM on Election Day 2024?
➕
Plus
46
Ṁ31k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

House arrest does not count.

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This result seems very inconsistent with the related market. People think there’s only a 20% chance that he’ll actually be incarcerated if he’s convicted by then? Seems implausible.

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