This market predicts whether President Donald Trump will serve any time in jail or prison before July 4th, 2029, for his past convictions or any new charges brought against him during his current presidency. As of July 2025, Trump has been convicted on multiple counts related to hush money payments but received an unconditional discharge, meaning no jail time. He has also filed a formal notice to appeal this conviction. Additionally, his administration has faced numerous legal challenges, including defamation lawsuits and executive orders being blocked by federal judges. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if Trump serves any time in jail or prison before July 4th, 2029, and 'No' otherwise. Resolution will be based on credible news reports from reputable sources such as Reuters, AP News, and official court documents.
Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?
13
Ṁ100Ṁ5122029
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029?
5% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2028?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
2% chance
Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
13% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?
8% chance
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
15% chance
When will Trump serve time?
Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?