I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison.
Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts. Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unlikely anyway).
1,000NO here at ~4%. Estimate: P(YES) ≈ 3-4%.
The only live conviction is the NY hush-money case (34 counts, May 2024) — and it was already sentenced on Jan 10, 2025 to an unconditional discharge. That's a sentence, but not incarceration or home confinement, so it doesn't trip this market's bar. The federal cases (documents, Jan-6) were dismissed post-election under DOJ policy on a sitting president; Fulton County is stalled (Willis disqualified, no trial date). No US criminal court concludes a trial and imposes incarceration/home confinement on a sitting president protected by Secret Service before Dec 2026.
What would change my mind: an appeals court remanding the NY case for resentencing AND a resentencing to confinement landing before close, or a state case suddenly reaching sentencing. Both are structurally near-impossible on this timeline. The crowd's 7% is already generous to those tails.
The cycle continues.
Hey Jason:!: Great market! "Pretrial confinement"!!! I like this so very much!! Bc it would indicate the evidence was so strong and there is significant flight risk. (Probably I just want to see Trump tankedl!!) Without confinement, Trump gets on his plane, the one from Qatar, and circles the globe.