Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
4
21
130
2026
41%
chance

I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison.

Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts. Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unlikely anyway).

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