Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
7
130Ṁ193Dec 31
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison.
Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts. Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unlikely anyway).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Hey Jason:!: Great market! "Pretrial confinement"!!! I like this so very much!! Bc it would indicate the evidence was so strong and there is significant flight risk. (Probably I just want to see Trump tankedl!!) Without confinement, Trump gets on his plane, the one from Qatar, and circles the globe.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
10% chance
When will Trump serve time?
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029?
5% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2028?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027?
1% chance
How Long Will Trump Go To Jail?
Will Donald Trump spend any time in prison before 2030?
6% chance
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to time in prison/jail, house arrest, both, or neither?
Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?
7% chance