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Nov 5
84%
chance

This resolves yes iff any criminal case against Trump in the US is resolved before Election Day 2024 in any of the following ways: a guilty verdict (whether by jury or bench trial); a guilty plea; or a plea of no contest or nolo contendere.*

*To achieve finality, this will resolve yes 24 hours after the first guilty verdict is reached and entered. If, within that day, the guilty verdict is reversed in effect, such as through a post-verdict judgment of acquittal or reversal on appeal, it will not count as a guilty plea or verdict. Otherwise, it will count as a guilty plea or verdict, even if there is active litigation around the plea or verdict 24 hours after the verdict.

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bought Ṁ200 NO

Doesn’t it now seem much more likely that there are enough votes on the SC to at least delay the trial beyond the election?

@DavidFWatson This doesn’t apply to the NY case, but the probability should change today.

https://bsky.app/profile/kenwhite.bsky.social/post/3kmj4azvodr2z

predicts YES

Title changed; does not make a substantive difference.

sold Ṁ12 of YES

@Radicalia Actually I changed back because there is a small technical difference

I just found this market and want to say you did a great job defining the resolution criteria clearly.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

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