Will Trump die in prison?
99
10k
2101
19%
chance

Prison, jail, or other types of custody all count. It must be a place he was relocated to under the control of authorities. No due date. US or other nation's custody both count. If he escapes the location of constraint he doesn't count as in jail any longer. If he escapes control within a prison but is still within its confines it counts.

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@StrayClimb How will you answer this question if he is a prisoner, but is in a hospital at the time of his death? For example, he is taken from the prison to the hospital because he's showing warning signs of a heart attack and at the hospital he has a heart attack and dies there.

predicts YES

@LukeHanks 1. He was under control 2. He was moved without his own choice in the matter 3. There are still physical controls and guards

All point me to considering this as him being controlled, so YES

I am gonna be honest I get a really ugly schadenfreud from this.

House arrest count?

predicts YES

@Mad House arrest seems like no since its not a place one has been relocated to, nor is it really "under the control of authorities"

Although this is not a ruling and I'd like to hear others ideas.

@StrayClimb I think detaining somebody inside a resort/golf course is not much of a detention.

Yeah Prison is distinct from Jail and House Arrest, I would assume this only applies to Prison.

predicts YES

@Joshua the descriptions makes this clear.

predicts YES

i.e. it applies to any government-imposed physical location restraint where the government controls the location he is in and it's not his own area.

predicts NO

Gotcha, makes sense to me.

predicts YES

@StrayClimb I disagree, you said CUSTODY I feel house arrest is custody

it's not like he has freedom of movement.

predicts YES

@AmandaSmith it says "A place he was relocated to under control of authorities*. If he's under house arrest it doesn't seem he's under control. There would be no guards and he'd effectively be at home.

predicts YES

@StrayClimb that's complete non-sense he would be relocated from any other location to a specific location under threat of force.

what would it matter that he happened to own the location.

I am not the one who wrote the vague description

perhaps you need to look up the definition of the word custody.

predicts YES

@AmandaSmith you are free to bet or not as you like but keep it civil

predicts YES

@StrayClimb a disagreement and sarcasm is nothing but civil.

predicts YES

@AmandaSmith I would greatly appreciate if you did not trade in my markets in the future.

predicts YES

@CodeandSolder I will do my best best. tbh I dont look at the author often

predicts YES
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predicts YES

@StrayClimb this is clearly starting to have diminishing returns.

but avoiding vague resolution criteria is litterally in the FAQ

my shares are sold expect no followup

predicts YES

@AmandaSmith I think the description is clear. The case you're making is that the government may house arrest him at his own mansion? If he woke up there that morning a free man it doesn't feel like it satisfies the requirement to have been relocated there, and also doesn't satisfy the requirement to have been under physical control.

@StrayClimb custodythe protective care or guardianship of someone or somthing

in a situation where he woke up in a place of custody instead of having to relocate Then there is an argument for a no resolution.

@AmandaSmith Is your argument that being in house arrest is a type of custody? That's worth debating. If he is locked in a room in his mansion w/guards outside and can't leave, yes I would agree his physical situation satisfies this claim. that is in effect a custom, one-room jail/prison. On the opposite end of the spectrum - if he has the run of his own 30 acre mansion with kitchen, multiple buildings, sports complexes, free to move on his own, buy things from Amazon, receive visitors, his own personal staff who he pays, but cannot leave the grounds, and there are no guards on property, and also, he was "relocated" there by the authorities, but it's also his own house, it is against the spirit of this claim and would not count as being in prison/jail/etc.

The middle cases are harder where there is some level of control, guards, etc. It's hard to be specific now, but I hope what I'm going for is clear. In general if he's on his own property w/his own staff, it is just very hard to consider that satisfying YES.

I avoid NA resolutions because it feels a bit distortionary to me and overall rewards not betting since it just ends up money lockup for everyone w/no profit.

@StrayClimb my argument would be that house arrest is self evidently a custody situation yes.

completely irregardless of the size of the confinement you could be in custody at Disney world and it's still custody. by the definition of the word why would you go off of anything else than the meaning of the words that you are using.

I dont understand why the specifics of the confinement would meaningfully effect the resolution unless you were for some reason to specify.

genuinely resolve this however you feel like I would have bet yes on this topic at these % even had you only said died in prison and left it at that.

I dont understand your understanding of semantics and that's ok I hope you have a good day.

@AmandaSmith The claim is NOT "Trump dies in custody". So yes, house arrest is custody, but that doesn't mean the claim resolves YES.

The claim is the title+entire description, which is (paraphrasing, refer to original description for judgement) that Trump is meaningfully, physically constrained and restricted physically from access to things he wants, and from physical movement. Some types of house arrest satisfy this and some do not, which is why house arrest is a special case, particularly for someone with as many personal resources as he has. It's also why being in house arrest in someone else's house (not a Trump ally) is more likely to count since it will imply more actual restriction.

@AmandaSmith Also a side note, people here love to debate prison/jail/house arrest even though colloquially prison & jail are used interchangeably. That's why I didn't just specify jail in the title since people would come in saying "actually, jail != prison"

@StrayClimb "prisin jail or other types of custody" that is an or statement which would mean you only have to satisfy the lowest bar.

you cant then go on to say he died in a very relaxed form of custody that did not look similar to jail or prison so I resolve no?

I mean you could but that would be a Bizaaro interpretation of your own description.

@StrayClimb I wouldnt consider Jail prison myself but I am over 14 years old.

I am sure some people would consider them synonymous though.

anyway I need to move on best of luck

@AmandaSmith The sentences in the desc are all relevant. I understand your point, and I think it's meaningful. My balance to that is that I still want to exclude him being put in a cushy "custody" mansion which he owns. To me that doesn't get what I want to get at with this market: Trump dies, "conceptually" in jail. Being in his own bed with his wife, kids, friends, riches around him, private chef, best cars, private race track, own doctor, etc does not satisfy that. That is my motivation for adding these complications within house arrest on his own property. But, if you would like to make a market for simple "in custody" that would be good for the site, too.

@StrayClimb I understand but that puts you in a very tricky position as you already have bettors with specific expectations.

perhaps you should edit the description I dont know if you can I havent authored a question yet

I dont think whichever way you resolve this would rise to a level as to have a moderator reverse the decision but I dont really know from experience

predicts YES

@AmandaSmith “Relocated” is doing a lot of work in the construction. It def. implies to my reading that house arrest is not a “relocation”

@AdamTreat do you think it matters that trump is a multi property owner?

predicts YES