Will Trump spend any time in prison before he dies?
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predicts NO

Can we get clarification on how this resolves with house arrest?

predicts NO

@mudPi314 That question has only a 21% chance of 'never', BUT makes it explicit that house arrest will count if it happens after a conviction. This question doesn't make it explicit, but the obvious reading of it would be that house arrest would not count. If you think there's a ~25% chance that Trump will be sentenced to only house arrest, there's no arbitrage potential.

How will this resolve if he spends time in jail, but not prison?

@meefburger Those terms are not very precise, but being detained in jail prior to trial will not resolve this YES; being incarcerated due to serving a prison sentences after being found guilty of a crime will.

10% is not implausible; 30% is BlueAnon level of crazy https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/
predicts NO
@Gigacasting it's the long run market problem, yes resolves sooner than no.
Betting on USA being too corrupt for this to happen.
I could see him visiting a prison execution as a photo op.
predicts NO
@MartinRandall Specifically, as a resident in prison.

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