Will Trump spend any time in prison before he dies?
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predicts NO

Can we get clarification on how this resolves with house arrest?

predicts NO

@mudPi314 That question has only a 21% chance of 'never', BUT makes it explicit that house arrest will count if it happens after a conviction. This question doesn't make it explicit, but the obvious reading of it would be that house arrest would not count. If you think there's a ~25% chance that Trump will be sentenced to only house arrest, there's no arbitrage potential.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

How will this resolve if he spends time in jail, but not prison?

@meefburger Those terms are not very precise, but being detained in jail prior to trial will not resolve this YES; being incarcerated due to serving a prison sentences after being found guilty of a crime will.

10% is not implausible; 30% is BlueAnon level of crazy https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/
predicts NO
@Gigacasting it's the long run market problem, yes resolves sooner than no.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Betting on USA being too corrupt for this to happen.
I could see him visiting a prison execution as a photo op.
predicts NO
@MartinRandall Specifically, as a resident in prison.