LOESS curve of opinion polls of voters for the 45th Canadian federal election:
Dark mode for viewing pleasure:
Up-to-date as of October 4, 2024. 30-poll smoothing factor. Square root applied to sample sizes when weighting. Highlight ribbon is of 95% confidence interval of local regression standard error (not polling margin of error).
338Canada update:
Conservatives achieve their highest ever seat projection of 228, up from 221. They are now projected to sweep Saskatchewan and PEI, and all but one seat in Alberta. They are projected to obtain 81.1% of seats in English Canada (all regions excluding Quebec), and 66.5% of seats in all of Canada, a near supermajority.
Liberals achieve their lowest ever seat projection of just 53, prompting the creation of a new graph to showcase their chance of remaining the official opposition, which is 83%, with the Bloc Quebecois at 17%.
Major update: 3 consecutive polls now have the NDP and the Liberals in a statistical tie, with two of them showing the NDP above the Liberals:
The NDP hasn't polled above the Liberals since 2015, 9 years ago. Conservatives continue to dominate, with a commanding 24 point lead over the NDP
338Canada now has their highest ever projected total seats for the Conservatives at 221, Liberals at their lowest ever projected seat total of 61. Bloc Quebecois remains at their record high while the NDP remains near their record low:
New 338Canada update:
Conservatives at their all-time high seat projection, and Liberals at their all-time low seat projection. Bloc surges while NDP languishes near all-time low:
When it comes to the popular vote, a similar story is told, with the Conservatives near their all-time high:
Conservatives maintain their greater than 99% chance of victory:
@spider when did I say that? Please read the comments below to learn my opinion, not gonna repeat myself ad nauseum
As explained earlier in the comments, this market was poorly made and will simply become less accurate if one of the candidates leaves. The JT option is for JT only, not a hypothetical Liberal candidate. As of the time of writing, this market would resolve N/A if none of the listed candidates win. However, there's some talk about whether Manifold will add an auction system, where I could close the market, change the JT option to a new Liberal candidate, and then hold an auction to make it fair when reentering the market with this new option. But unless a fair method of closing and reopening the market is added, I won't be doing that
@PeterNjeim it might be worth editing the description to include this, given the volume of comments.
@spider it's not really that important, the market is asking if a specific candidate will win, if someone interprets that as meaning a certain party, that's them misreading it
New record for the Conservatives. New Mainstreet poll shows their highest ever lead for the Conservatives at 22pp, the second highest lead ever recorded, and the highest recorded lead for an A- or higher rating pollster. It also shows Conservatives with 45% support, the second highest support level ever, the highest being 45.6% back in early March. Liberals and NDP combined only make up 38%, a 7pp lead for the Conservatives over the failing duo
Canada and America are acting in parallel. Both incumbent left-wing leaders are being asked to not seek reelection: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9781gr02p5o