Market Overview

This market predicts who will hold the office of Prime Minister of Australia immediately following the next federal election. The constitutional deadline for the election is 20 May 2028. This market tracks both the outcome of the general election and potential mid-term leadership spills within the major political parties.

Initial Candidates

• Anthony Albanese: The incumbent Prime Minister leading the Australian Labor Party government following his re-election in 2025. He serves as the market anchor.

• Angus Taylor: The current Leader of the Opposition and leader of the Liberal Party of Australia. He represents the primary challenge for the Coalition.

• Jim Chalmers: The current Treasurer of Australia. He is a primary candidate for succession if the Labor Party initiates a leadership change before or immediately after the vote.

• Pauline Hanson: The leader of Pauline Hanson's One Nation. While a Senate seat makes a Prime Ministerial path highly improbable, she remains a prominent wildcard option for speculative trading.

Resolution Rules

1. Core Criteria: This market will resolve to the individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister by the Governor-General to form the first ministry following the next Australian federal election.

2. Timing Boundary: The market will remain open through the election cycle and close officially on 31 May 2028, or earlier once a clear government is formed and the Prime Minister is sworn in.

3. Mid-Term Spills: Leadership changes that occur prior to the election will not trigger an early resolution unless that leader carries the position through the formal post-election swearing-in ceremony.

4. Write-In Candidates: This is a Free Response market. Traders may add any valid, real-world political candidate. If an unlisted write-in candidate is sworn in as Prime Minister, the market will resolve to that individual.

5. Source Material: Final resolution will be verified using official announcements from the Australian Electoral Commission and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.