3 consecutive record-smashing polls for the Conservatives:

• Angus Reid's previous record was a 17 point lead on March 4th

• Nanos' previous record was a 19.5 point lead on March 1st

• Leger's previous record was a 16 point lead on March 25th

Polls are consistently ranking the Conservatives as outnumbering both the Liberals and NDP combined:

• Angus Reid: CPC: 43, LPC+NDP: 42 (CPC +1)

• Nanos: CPC: 44, LPC+NDP: 40 (CPC +4)

• Leger: CPC: 44, LPC+NDP: 40 (CPC +4)

338Canada aggregated for the first time the Conservative vote (42%) outnumbering both the Liberal (24%) and NDP (18%) vote combined:

Due to the new 343-seat map for the next election, the Conservatives also got a bump in seats:

Angus Reid post-budget poll shows massive 20 point lead for the Conservatives, at 43%, more than Liberals and NDP combined (23% and 19%, respectively):

No Bounce: Liberals’ hoped-for support surge in wake of under-40 targeted spending blitz has yet to materialize

New projection from 338Canada:

for the first time in this electoral cycle, the Conservatives have a greater than 99% chance of forming a majority government

@Daniel_MC Your reply makes it seem like this market was improperly priced at 99%, it wasn't, so I don't really understand why you said this. Not to mention, this exact sentiment has been shared in the comments many times

New poll shows largest lead ever reported during this election cycle, at 21 pp. Conservatives outnumber Liberal, NDP, and BQ combined. Granted, IVR usually leads to higher than normal Conservative numbers, it still means there's continued upward momentum for them:

New projection from 338Canada: unprecedented 99% chance of forming a majority Conservative government

@AxelJacobsen You've been insulted

@DylanSlagh Enlightened Chad

@missprediction Enlightened Chad

@sylv You've been insulted

@DaphneHansell Enlightened Chad

@AlQuinn @ElmerFudd @ZacharyParker You are all hereby insulted by me (in an excellent manner)

@PeterNjeim thanks, I actually bought in just to be insulted

this market is cursed

@spider it's now been over-arbitraged to oblivion, predictiveness is at an all-time low, dumb money has reigned supreme

Also when these two people like the same comment you know you said something right:

Beware that severe market manipulation is present in this market. Greedy anti-predictive individuals are arbitraging with dumb-money markets causing a weighted average to manifest with this (soon-to-be former) smart-money market

@Tumbles This is the second time you've made a false statement without evidence. Dumb money means bad predictions, and you just admitted that you don't know if I've predicted anything correctly (or incorrectly), meaning you have no information to determine if my money is smart, dumb, or something in between. It does show that your mana is the dumb money, considering you can't understand basic logic. Your definition of smart money is incomplete, it not only includes people who've won mana from previous correct predictions, but also all people on the planet who've made consistently good predictions, either by speech, by mana, or by real money

@Tumbles You stated, without evidence, that I was "technically" the dumb money. Not only is this the opposite of what "technically" means, it's just an incorrect statement based on your own lack of knowledge about me (which you admitted).

As for why I want to participate in a prediction market, it's because I want to see how predictive they can be, but the limitations of fake money make it lack the predictiveness I want, and so I took actions to prevent arbitrage betting with less predictive markets (in my view) to mitigate this limitation. This caused me to have more influence on this market despite my mana poverty, making it more in line with a real money market. Now that the floodgates have opened regarding arbitrage betting, this market will forever be less predictive than it could be, and I have the right to complain about it

@EvanDaniel When did I insult Tumbles? He's insulted me and I've rebutted him, unless you mean my insults to others, in which case sure

Also I'll just add, whenever a productive discussion occurs online, rest assured that a "moderator" will escalate the situation by claiming others need to "chill" or "calm down". Trust us Evan, we are already chill and will continue to be, this is friendly banter

@Shkeonk Evan just asked for insults to stop yet you just violated it. Also, the classic gaslight abuse tactics don't work on me. It's not my fault you think there's a 30% chance someone with tanking poll numbers and personal popularity numbers in their 3rd term can win a 4th time, but I digress