Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?
418
1.6kṀ420k
Apr 30
56%
Mark Carney (or other Liberal leader)
43%
Pierre Poilievre
0.1%
Other
0%
Justin Trudeau
0%
Jagmeet Singh
0%
Yves-François Blanchet

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LOESS curve of opinion polls of voters for the 2025 Canadian federal election:

Dark mode for viewing pleasure:

Up-to-date as of March 10, 2025. 30-poll smoothing factor. Square root applied to sample sizes when weighting. Highlight ribbon is of 95% confidence interval of local regression standard error (not polling margin of error).

After Can't-speak-French Carney cowardly pulled out of the Quebec-focused TVA Face-à-face French language debate, Polymarket odds take an expected turn, lunging Pierre "has a very French name" Poilievre into the lead

bought Ṁ50 YES

Looks like the honeymoon period is over

bought Ṁ127 YES

When you're chilling because you know you bet $200 USD on Pierre at 90¢ on Polymarket and that the rule of futarchy is that whoever puts money where their mouth is is always right

bought Ṁ25 YES
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@PeterNjeim Why only $200?

@makeworld rest went into TSLR

@PeterNjeim am I understanding this right, Peter are you long on Tesla???

bought Ṁ36 YES

@PeterNjeim Look at my political analyst, dawg, I'm going to debtor's jail 😭😭😭😭😭

@Tumbles your political analyst made 23% in one day, as he stoicly ignored the desperate noise produced by anti-prosperity activists. You will not tread not into debtor's jail, but creditor's paradise, being driven by a nice Tesla Cybercab over the clouds

@PeterNjeim beyond parody

Это человек, который знает, как управлять рынком и разделом комментариев. 🔨

wassup canadians what do we bet about here what the fuck is a prime minister

@beaver1 I think it's like a governor?

@Joshua ta yeule esti

bought Ṁ100 YES

@beaver1 equivilent its our president

@makeworld Keep posting those honeymoon polls, it'll be very nice to take free mana from the believers

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filled a Ṁ200 YES at 69% order
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