If Trump wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025?
5
180αΉ1852026
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Trump does win, resolves to the bond yield on the US 10-year government bond at the end of 2025, times ten. For example, a 4.80% bond yield would result in a "48%" resolution on this question, and so on. A bond yield of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
As a source of bond yields, I will use the the "10y" column on the US Dept of Treasury's published yield curve, here: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202403
I'll use the last published date in 2025.
I will not trade in this market.
Compare:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?
23% chance
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
45% chance
Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?
77% chance
Will US tariffs go up in 2025 iff Trump wins? (Up if Trump wins, or down if not.)
92% chance
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2025 be 4% or higher?
52% chance
Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?
If Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?
Given that Trump wins, will sports betting be substantially less legal federally at the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will Donald Trump's net worth be greater than or equal to $1 billion at the end of 2025?
87% chance