Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Plus
10
Ṁ7482029
11%
Increase (>= 0.88)
13%
Stay about the same (>= 0.83 && <= 0.87)
28%
Decrease slightly (>= 0.78 && <= 0.82)
19%
Decrease significantly (>= 0.73 && <= 0.77)
19%
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72)
10%
Decrease extremely (<= 0.67)
WIll resolve based on the Electoral Deomcracy Index from our world in data which is based on the V-Dem report.
2023 the US got 0.85.
Will resolve to NA if trump is not elected in 2024 (all mana returned).
Otherwise, will resolve once the data for 2028 is released (probably march 2029).
For reference the following indexes were given in 2023.
Sweden: 0.88
US: 0.85
Japan: 0.82
Brazil: 0.78
Israel 0.72
Mexico: 0.53
India: 0.38
Turkey: 0.29
Russia: 0.19
China 0.07
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