Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond reaches or exceeds 5.6% at any point during Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States. Trump's second term began on January 20, 2025, and is scheduled to end on January 20, 2029. The yield data will be verified using official sources such as the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (tradingeconomics.com) or the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (fred.stlouisfed.org). If the yield does not reach 5.6% during this period, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The 30-year Treasury yield reflects investor sentiment about long-term economic growth and inflation expectations. As of May 6, 2025, the yield stood at 4.81% (ycharts.com). Historically, the yield peaked at 15.21% in October 1981 and reached a low of 0.99% in March 2020 (tradingeconomics.com). Factors influencing the yield include Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation trends, and overall economic conditions.

Considerations

Traders should monitor economic indicators such as inflation rates, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and fiscal policies enacted during Trump's second term, as these can significantly impact Treasury yields. Additionally, global economic events and geopolitical developments may influence investor demand for U.S. government bonds, thereby affecting yields.