This is tracked by Our World In Data's Democracy Data Explorer which uses data from The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and currently lists the US central estimate at 0.82. 0.80 is the lowest central estimate for the US since 1975. If Trump does not win the 2024 general election, this will resolve NA. Otherwise: If the 2025 central estimate for the US falls to 0.79 or below, this resolves YES Otherwise, resolves NO [image]Partner market: @/probajoelistic/-if-trump-loses-will-the-us-elector Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when the V-Dem data is updated with 2025 data, which is expected in March 2026.

Yes — resolved on Mar 20, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

🇺🇸 If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?

Ṁ1kṀ17k

resolved Mar 20

Resolved

YES

ALL

This is tracked by Our World In Data's Democracy Data Explorer which uses data from The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and currently lists the US central estimate at 0.82. 0.80 is the lowest central estimate for the US since 1975.

If Trump does not win the 2024 general election, this will resolve NA. Otherwise:

If the 2025 central estimate for the US falls to 0.79 or below, this resolves YES
Otherwise, resolves NO

Partner market: /probajoelistic/-if-trump-loses-will-the-us-elector

Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when the V-Dem data is updated with 2025 data, which is expected in March 2026.

Market context

US Politics

Politics

Trump

2024 US Presidential Election

US Democracy

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welp

@probajoelistic This resolves as YES. Could you please do it?

I was curious when this will likely resolve, and found this in the "Learn more about this data" popup in the linked explorer: "Next expected update: March 2026". Presumably that will be the update that adds the 2025 data point.