🇺🇸 If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?
Plus
16
Ṁ8772026
80%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is tracked by Our World In Data's Democracy Data Explorer which uses data from The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and currently lists the US central estimate at 0.82. 0.80 is the lowest central estimate for the US since 1975.
If Trump does not win the 2024 general election, this will resolve NA. Otherwise:
If the 2025 central estimate for the US falls to 0.79 or below, this resolves YES
Otherwise, resolves NO
Partner market: /probajoelistic/-if-trump-loses-will-the-us-elector
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?
40% chance
If Trump wins, what will the Democracy Index be for the US at the end of his presidency?
Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Will the US fall in the Freedom Index in 2024?
60% chance
Will the democracy score for the United States significantly decrease by the end of 2025?
28% chance
If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?
83% chance
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
18% chance
If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?
50% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?
25% chance
Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
30% chance