Is Donald Trump more likely to win the presidential election if the US enters a recession by the end of 2024?

This market resolves Yes if these two markets resolve in the same direction:



It resolves "No" if they resolve in opposite directions. In the case of unforeseen strangeness with the specific markets linked, I will resolve based on my own best judgement of if these two things happened or did not happen.

As of market creation, the Trump market is at 40% and the recession market is at 46%.

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After Biden’s age, I think the economy is the #2 concern of voters expressing why they’re worried about Biden

Roughly 4 in 10 Americans say the economy or the cost of living is the most important issue facing the country, far above the share who name any other issue, and few express optimism about where the economy is headed.