US Recession before 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Manifold

US Recession before 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

23

1kṀ8054

2026

1.1%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

From https://metaculus.com/questions/16171/democrat-wins-2024-us-presidential-election/

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bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@dglid wow, why was this at 50% until just now? Am I missing something on the structure of this conditional market?

@bens like, there's no way for this to resolve YES, correct? It either resolves NO or gets N/A'ed if it turns out there was a recession in 2024 (unlikely)

@bens that’s correct

Extending close date to match Metaculus resolution date

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