Resolves to whichever race ends up being the tightest, measured by final vote counts. If the closest Senate race is ultimately one not on this list, I will still resolve to whichever of these 8 is the closest.
i.e. if most races are won by 2%+ points but one race is won by just 1%, then that one race would be considered the closest.
Trading closes November 4th.
Inspired by: Tracking the Senate's Most Competitive Races (NYT)
1,000
1.00This market has a very strange set of options. Texas is excluded in favor of Maryland (which is not what the NYT does). In my opinion, Florida also has a >5% chance - particularly in scenarios where Democrats beat their polls. So note that this market may not actually have the closest Senate seat. (According to the criteria, it will then resolve to the closest on the list, which is most likely to be Montana in this kind of scenario.)