MANIFOLD
Which Senate Seats will flip in the 2024 election?
42
Ṁ1.5kṀ16k
resolved Nov 21
Resolved
YES
West Virginia
Resolved
YES
Montana
Resolved
YES
Ohio
Resolved
YES
Pennsylvania
Resolved
NO
Arizona (D-held)
Resolved
NO
Michigan
Resolved
NO
Nevada
Resolved
NO
Wisconsin
Resolved
NO
Maine
Resolved
NO
Texas
Resolved
NO
Florida
Resolved
NO
New Jersey
Resolved
NO
Minnesota
Resolved
NO
Maryland

Arizona I will count as D-Held, so if the Democrat wins it will not count as a flip

Market context
US Politics
US Congressional Elections 2024
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bought Ṁ580 NO

@SemioticRivalry time to resolve Arizona? Thanks!

bought Ṁ636 YES

@SemioticRivalry time to resolve most of these? Thanks!

Most of these have been called already and can be resolved.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4685156-senate-seats-flip-2024/mlite/?nxs-test=mlite

Mitch McConnell:

"We know where we’re going to play for sure right now: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland."

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/02/red-senate-wave-mcconnell-2024-november-00155478

@SemioticRivalry Can you add an option for Maryland?

Also if Sinema wins as an I, is that a flip?

@nikki if she continues caucusing with Ds, no

Does Angus King count as a D?

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