Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:
Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 68% (The Hill), 73% (538), 67% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Lean D (Cook), Lean D (Sabato), Tilt D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Baldwin+2.9
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+11 (Baldwin vs. Vukmir)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+6 (Baldwin vs. Thompson)
Recent Wisconsin presidential election results: Biden+0.6 (2020), Trump+0.8 (2016), Obama+7 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
[I couldn’t find any]
Conflux commentary:
In 1998, Tammy Baldwin became the first openly lesbian woman to be elected to Congress! In 2012, she became the first woman at all to be a senator from Wisconsin. And she’s won her elections by solid margins in the purple state. Eric Hovde (pronounced like “hover” but with the last syllable replaced with “dee”), by contrast, is another businessman with no political experience. (He also has questionable residency — “In press releases, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin has taken to calling him Eric Hovde (R-Laguna Beach).”) Here, the candidate quality explanation for the Democratic advantage holds water.
Baldwin’s lead in polls was formerly around 6 points, but it’s down to 3. Again, this could be would-be split-ticket voters feeling pressure to vote for a Republican. It wouldn’t take a big polling error for Hovde to become the senator.