In which state will the tipping point House seat be located in the 2024 US Election?

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Ṁ3892

resolved Dec 28

100%99.0%

Pennsylvania

0.0%

Iowa

0.0%

New York

0.0%

California

0.0%

Michigan

0.0%

Florida

0.0%

Arizona

0.0%

Washington

0.0%

Colorado

0.1%

New Jersey

0.1%

Maine

0.2%

Nebraska

0.2%

Texas

0.2%Other

Order all the 2024 House races by the Democrats' margin of victory (i.e. % D vote - % R vote). Which House race is the one that would give Democrats their 218th seat? In 2022, it was Iowa's 3rd Congressional District. See more: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Congressional_margin_of_victory_analysis

This market will resolve ignoring any resignations or deaths, purely based off the recorded election results.

Feel free to add your own answers, however they must be valid states that have not already been added.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#US Congressional Elections 2024

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I presume that this will treat the Alaska margin as the runoff margin rather than first-round margin, much like the Ballotpedia page does?

@EricNeyman Yes, exactly.

bought Ṁ20 NO

I don't know why California was trading at 98%. Brought it down to a more reasonable 30%.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Cool market idea, boosting

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