@OlegEterevsky what time zone do you use for resolution?

@MaxA great clarification, but it would have to be US wouldn't it, since it's local to launch and most reporting? That's a lot of timezones, but has starship ever had a flight window close to midnight? I don't think we need the accuracy but I'll suggest CDT (UTC-5) since thats the timezone for Boca Chica

Oh, Space X has a published flight window as MAY 19, 2026 16:30 - 18:00 CST of maybe I'm slightly off in my suggestion:

https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-12

@MaxA Local timezone for the launch site, so EDT

@OlegEterevsky you mean CDT of course?

@MaxA Yes, sorry. Just checked and it's CDT

New NOTAMs now start at May 19th (IV 440/26) giving a new NET:

https://starship-spacex.fandom.com/wiki/Starship_Flight_Test_12

https://nextspaceflight.com/starship/

That bin that only includes May 19th and 20th with odds at 44% could be a bit optimistic

@BodeyBaker 20th isn't "before 20th" so it is only 19th?

@ChristopherRandles Right! Well... even more optimistic then?

NOTAMs posted for the 15th, so still seems like that's the NET.

Successful full duration static fire today! However, the time from final static fire to launch for past flights still makes me pessimistic about a May launch.

@Natthaphon I

https://x.com/Ellieinspace/status/2051089869137428637
Everyone keeps asking me when Flight 12 of Starship will be. A few days ago, I was confident that the NET date would be May 12th, but now that seems a bit deluge-ional after a water deluge issue yesterday.

deluge-ional lol 🤣

@OlegEterevsky 1 May can resolve.

Perhaps more interesting: I am surprised this is posted for so soon, particularly before a static fire is completed. Anyway should note this may provide plenty of scope for it to be pushed back to later than May 12.

https://x.com/dpoddolphinpro/status/2050237415596372269

BREAKING: Starship Flight 12 NET May 12, 22:30 UTC / 17:30 CDT
An advisory has appeared on the CADENA Operational Information System. - NEW Trajectory - Afternoon Launch Window

The window spans 22:30 - 00:43 UTC, which is 17:30 - 19:43 Starbase local time. Instead of flying the corridor between Florida and Cuba, Starship Flight 12 appears to be targeting a more inclined corridor, threading the needle between Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. Despite this change in launch trajectory, splashdown remains in the Indian Ocean, with a corridor running through Madagascan, Mauritian, and Australian airspace.

@ChristopherRandles agreed my theorem has been no launch within a month of a successful booster static fire. Especially with all the new ground systems relatively untested. 2 weeks seems close even if they were fully prepped for wet dress rehearsal.

@RyanTyznar I might have suggested 3 weeks rather than a month from successful static fire to first v3 launch but 8 days from TFR period starting 4th May which seems like it is for SF to 12th May as first target launch date sounds a rather aggressive aim to me particularly if they haven't done any full stack and SQD testing before the static fire. For next few launches maybe 8 days is or will become plausible before being reduced further. Guess we will see.

@ChristopherRandles Done. I've also added a few more answers.

@ChristopherRandles 3 weeks is probably more realistic but going with a month i found is a better risk/reward that has worked in my favor often in the past. Even this last static fire for example faked everyone out looking successful but being too short. It helped me get NOs in at a higher percentage on the risk of further schedule slippage.

@RyanTyznar yes, I yoyo'd a bit on events started thinking it was too short then spaceX tweet not mentioning any problems seemed like that was a good sign then the video that admitted it was too short. There might be a longer appropriate time difference
i.e. if the static fire is known to be successful then assume 3 weeks
but if not known whether it was successful or if it is only 'about to happen' then assume a month.

Appropriate times are likely to come down with more experience of launching v3.

Road delay late 30 April - 1 May production to pad and pad to production.
https://www.starbase.texas.gov/beach-road-access

TFR presumably for a repeat static fire is for a period of 4th to 18th
https://x.com/WatchersTank/status/2049925604946899034
"A new TFR has been posted for May 4-18 for the next attempt at a 33-engine static fire of Booster 19! After the last attempt was aborted before reaching full duration, things are ramping up for Starship Flight 12. We're getting closer!"

Obviously in hype language, having to redo a static fie gets described as "We're getting closer!"
Successfully doing static early on in 4th to 18th period might allow flight 12 before end of May.

@ChristopherRandles sounds like July 1st and August 1st options and an extension of the market through August would be reasonable.

@AndrewMeyer With 1 June at 72% I am not sure I would add any date or not later than ~7th June for the moment but feel free to buy no on 1 June 2026 to make adding later options look more sensible. ;)

@ChristopherRandles I disagree. It's not that I think the pricing for the June 1st contract is unreasonable. I just think it's weird not to have a later option when the existing latest option is only about 70%.

Flight 12 in one hour. Oh oops wrong large launch vehicle. Falcon Heavy flight 12 in one hour. Starship flight 12 more like a month away

@ChristopherRandles NET May 12 actually

Oh you already posted that, nvmd