Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030 | Manifold

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

44

1kṀ3027

2030

18%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

For clarity, if a part of Russia secedes as an independent state this would resolve positively.

If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.

If Crimea became an independent country, that would.

Ukraine-Russia war

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.
If Crimea became an independent country, that would.

This doesn't make sense.

Current events on this front:

https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/will-ukraine-take-grayvoron-this-we?r=U2Nod2FiaWxpc211cw

Will Ukraine take Grayvoron this week?

60% chance. Context, as this is just unfolding: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660586319679029250?cxt=HHwWhIC89bSdy4suAAAA Russian separatists seem to cooperate with Ukraine and took the border checkpoint at Kozinka. They seem to be carrying out operations on russian soil in order to…

People are also trading

Will Russia break up through 2025

Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Russia collapses before 2030

Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will Russia Exist in 2040?

Will Russia be a democracy in 2030?

Related questions

Will Russia break up through 2025

Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Russia collapses before 2030

Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will Russia Exist in 2040?

Will Russia be a democracy in 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules