Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
5
1kṀ1878
2029
49%
Chechnya (Ichkeria)
22%
Kaliningrad (Königsberg)
16%
Bashkortostan
16%
Tatarstan
16%
Udmurtia
16%
Chuvashia
16%
Karelia
16%
Dagestan
16%
Buryatia
15%
Sakha (Yakutia)

Resolution criteria

An option resolves to YES if, for that region, all three of the following occur on or before 31 December 2039:

  1. A formal independence referendum is held.

    • Defined as a formal vote organized in-person or online by a recognized local authority, an established exile government, or a clearly significant grassroots movement.

    • The referendum must pose the explicit question of secession and full sovereignty from the Russian Federation.

    • A majority of valid votes cast must be “Yes.”

  2. A formal declaration of independence is publicly issued by the regional authority, the organizing body, or a legitimate exile government. The declaration must be clear, formal, and attributable to the declaring authority.

  3. The self-declared independent entity receives recognition as an independent state from at least one UN member state (excluding Russia, if applicable). Recognition must be an official government act or statement.

Resolution will be determined by reports from reputable international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times, The Guardian) or widely reported statements from recognized international organizations or legitimate regional/exile governments. Websites such as the Anti-imperial Block of Nations (abn.org.ua) or similar platforms that monitor such referendums may also serve as primary sources if their reports are corroborated by broader international media.

Background

Various regions within the Russian Federation have active, albeit often suppressed, separatist or self-determination movements. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine has reportedly invigorated discussions surrounding the potential disintegration of the Russian Federation and increased attention on these movements.

Several online referendums on self-determination have already been conducted by activist groups. From February 16 to 28, 2023, online votes were held for Königsberg (Kaliningrad and region), Ingria (St. Petersburg and Leningrad region), Kuban (Krasnodar region), Siberia, and the Urals, with organizers claiming 5.634 million participants. Later in 2023, similar online referendums were reportedly held for Chuvashia, Karelia, Belgorod, Novgorod, and Voronezh Republics.

Chechnya (Ichkeria): Modern Chechen separatism dates back to the early 1990s, when the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria declared independence from Russia. This led to two Chechen Wars (1994-1996 and 1999-2009), after which Chechnya was reincorporated into the Russian Federation. A government-in-exile continues to exist, and in October 2022, the Ukrainian parliament recognized the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria as "temporarily occupied" by Russia. Chechen volunteers are currently fighting alongside the Ukrainian army with the stated goal of restoring Chechnya's independence.

Tatarstan: Tatarstan declared sovereignty from the Soviet Union in 1990 and held an independence referendum in 1992, where nearly 65% of the population reportedly voted "yes" to independence. While Tatarstan initially negotiated a special power-sharing agreement with Moscow in 1994, granting it substantial autonomy, these powers have been significantly eroded since the early 2000s under President Vladimir Putin. Groups like Free Idel-Ural continue to advocate for Tatarstan's full independence.

Kaliningrad (Königsberg): This Russian exclave, historically known as Königsberg, is geographically separated from mainland Russia, bordering EU and NATO members Poland and Lithuania. Since the early 1990s, proposals for Kaliningrad's independence or the formation of a "fourth Baltic state" have existed, with the now-banned Baltic Republican Party advocating for an autonomous republic. An online poll in 2023 reportedly showed 72.1% of respondents from Königsberg supporting independence.

Other Regions: Other regions include Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Sakha (Yakutia), Karelia, Tuva, Buryatia, and Chuvashia, among others. These movements often focus on cultural and linguistic preservation alongside desires for greater autonomy or independence.

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has the largest area - over 3 million km². The next largest are the Republic of Komi (417 thousand km²) and Buryatia (351 thousand km²). The Republics of Tatarstan (4 million people), Bashkortostan (4.09 million people) and Dagestan (3.1 million people) are the largest in terms of population.

The least subsidised regions from the federal budget are Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, which have significant revenues from their own industry and oil and gas sector. In contrast, the largest subventions are received by the North Caucasus republics, including Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan, which depend on subsidies of 50-60% of their budgets.

Considerations

The Russian government actively suppresses any actions or rhetoric deemed to promote separatism, with laws passed to combat such movements. Russia's Supreme Court has even moved to declare a vaguely defined "anti-Russian separatist movement" as an "extremist" organization. This makes it highly unlikely that any officially recognized independence referendums will be sanctioned by Moscow. Therefore, traders should focus on the likelihood of significant, albeit unofficial or exile-government-backed, referendums gaining enough traction and media coverage to meet the resolution criteria. The ongoing geopolitical climate, particularly the Russian war against Ukraine, may influence the visibility and support for such movements.

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