Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
14
150Ṁ5852040
59%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
18% chance
Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?
44% chance
Will Russia Exist in 2040?
94% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
32% chance
Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2030?
23% chance
Will Russia officially recognize Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk as part of Ukraine before 2030?
17% chance
Which regions will Russia claim sovereignty over as of 1 July 2027?
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
16% chance
Significant independence push by a Russian Republic before 2030
31% chance