A victory for dark enlightenment - fragmentation of the four biggest corrupt mega-entities.
As the EU is already fragmented, it must be at or below the present (Feb 2025) level of unification.
The other 3 must be at most at the same level - so there must be multiple entities managing their own taxation and security. If any is in the state of civil war, the actual situation/governance ability on the ground will be considered.
Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fragmentation Count: Only 2 fragments is enough.
Minimum Size Threshold: The fragmentation must be at least a 1/5 - 4/5 split, meaning both groups should constitute a significant proportion of the original entity.
Sovereignty Requirements: Both fragments must have control over security and taxation.