Russia collapses before 2030
118
1.1kṀ24k2030
22%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Henry Kissinger and other experts consider the possibility of a collapse of Russia.
For the purpose of this market, this means either at least three Russian republics declaring their independence or Russia becoming a failed state, not controlling all or a large part of its territory.
Territories in Ukraine including Crimea are not taken into account for this market.
A successful coup is not enough if the new leader still control all Russia.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China collapse before 2030
10% chance
Russia attacks NATO by 2030?
21% chance
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
42% chance
Will Russia join the EU before 2030?
5% chance
Will China turn on Russia before 2030?
21% chance
Will Russia be a democracy in 2030?
18% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?
5% chance
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?
16% chance
Will Putin die before 2030?
29% chance
Will Russia adopt the euro before 2030?
4% chance