Russia collapses before 2030
66
15k
2030
22%
chance

Henry Kissinger and other experts consider the possibility of a collapse of Russia.

For the purpose of this market, this means either at least three Russian republics declaring their independence or Russia becoming a failed state, not controlling all or a large part of its territory.

Territories in Ukraine including Crimea are not taken into account for this market.

A successful coup is not enough if the new leader still control all Russia.

I will not bet on this market.

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predicts NO

@Zardoru It's been two protests, both apparently with participants in the four digits. However, this seems very far from meaning any real chance (or even majority desire!) to secede.

predicts NO

@PS (basically, I feel this market is @FennGreengrass saying yes and everybody else saying no)

predicts NO

"Russian republics declaring their independence"

I assume success is implied.

"Russia becoming a failed state, not controlling all or a large part of its territory"

Wikipedia says "a breakdown in political power, law enforcement, and civil society, leading to a state of near-anarchy". This seems like a somewhat high bar. Mere civil unrest or even rebellion wouldn't be enough.

@BenjaminIkuta Yes, success is implied. That means former republic actually runs its territory, even if not recognized by ONU. States not controlling all the territory they are supposed to rule are fairly common in the world.

predicts NO

@Zardoru Would a small, orderly secession qualify?

@BenjaminIkuta Size limit is set to three republics. An orderly secession would qualify.

predicts NO

@Zardoru I mean for the second part. What's "a large part"?

@BenjaminIkuta I don't want to define this condition too precisely. Size and population should count.

predicts NO

@Zardoru and "failed state", I take that to mean some inability to wield the levers of power internally, not just losing territory.

@BenjaminIkuta Crimea is out of scope for this market.

predicts NO

@Zardoru I know, but it's related. If Russia collapses internally, it'll probably lose Crimea too.

This would pretty crazy if it happened, wouldn't it?

predicts NO

@Odoacre What's the difference between these?

predicts YES

@BenjaminIkuta The first one is any kind of split. The second one is about a split on the republic lines.