To count as significant either a) a Russian Republic needs to gain independence or b) at least 100 people die in a military conflict related to a independence movement.

For b) the casualties would have to be in the same independence movement. So these cannot be across separate republics UNLESS there is a clear stated plan by the involved republics to break away and form a new, combined state.

Reasons to believe this might happen: Soldiers right now mostly come from areas further away from Moscow. Reported gasoline shortages also mostly affect these areas. So they are really feeling the negatives of the war effort and might get disgruntled earlier.

• Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only the current 21 Russian Republics are eligible for this market.

  • Crimea does not count.