This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2025
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2025
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This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2025. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
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These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is

Everyone else who knows the discount rate is higher obviously has much better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is obviously much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and easily profit more than enough to cover that interest. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually at least 60% APY from my experience

@PatMyron I would say instead that they measure the general risk-free interest rate, made accounting for loan-back from Manifold. When Jack loans mana:

  • It is not a risk-free loan

  • There are administrative costs for Jack

  • Manifold doesn't auto-repay Jack's loan at 2%/day.

So it's natural for Jack's interest rate to be much higher. I think people are rational when they bet a market like this up to 99%.

@MartinRandall I agree the rate for absolutely no risk or effort at all is lower, but the description says "This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets" which involves both risk and effort. I still think those loans I mentioned are more meaningful information than these markets for determining that

@PatMyron I agree with your points, but this is still useful as a lower bound