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@NuñoSempere @mods Happy New Year! Could you please resolve? Thanks!

@AnonUser I see a kind mod resolved this question; this falls in the spirit of the question :)

@NuñoSempere That was me! I like to try to resolve this kind of question as soon as possible; most New Year's markets can wait a day or two, but I feel that the exact date these are resolved on is important to calculating the interest rate.

@guzey @ChameLeon @EntropyBot @Gurkenglas care to elaborate on your reasoning?

@mods i think this qualifies as unranked?

Agreed.

idk why nobody's betting no

I think “resolve positively” means he’s telling us it will resolve YES on that date. I believe the purpose of the market is to see the implied discount rate based on the distance from resolution.

But we can just bet no

But if on January 1st you hold any NO, and this resolves YES, you will lose all the mana.

that is true

are you the real alexey guzey

no

why are you burning money lol?

i'm not

I think it's bad to use this site as a way to gamble or throw away money instead of predicting

i'm not gambling and i'm not throwing away money

what are you doing then

i'm having fun

based. go big or go home. 1m mana

(no)

ok

WTF is going on 😭

These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is

Others knowing the discount rate is higher have better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and profit more than enough to cover that. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually >60% APY from my experience

@PatMyron I would say instead that they measure the general risk-free interest rate, made accounting for loan-back from Manifold. When Jack loans mana:

• It is not a risk-free loan

• There are administrative costs for Jack

• Manifold doesn't auto-repay Jack's loan at 2%/day.

So it's natural for Jack's interest rate to be much higher. I think people are rational when they bet a market like this up to 99%.

@MartinRandall I agree the rate for absolutely no risk or effort at all is lower, but the description says "This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets" which involves both risk and effort. I still think those loans I mentioned are more meaningful information than these markets for determining that

@PatMyron I agree with your points, but this is still useful as a lower bound