This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027

Basic

84

Ṁ46k2027

96%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2027. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.

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These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader *thinks* the discount rate is

Everyone else who knows the discount rate is higher obviously has much better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is obviously much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like **@jack **and easily profit more than enough to cover that interest. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually at least 60% APY from my experience

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