These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is

Others knowing the discount rate is higher have better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and profit more than enough to cover that. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually >60% APY from my experience