This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
98.3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2027. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
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Ṁ332
Ṁ274
Ṁ123
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Ṁ101
Ṁ80
Ṁ37
Ṁ36
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