This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027

82

Ṁ45k2027

98%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2027. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.

Get Ṁ600 play money

Sort by:

These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader *thinks* the discount rate is

Everyone else who knows the discount rate is higher obviously has much better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is obviously much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like **@jack **and easily profit more than enough to cover that interest. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually at least 60% APY from my experience

## Related questions

Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029

98% chance

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

42% chance

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

97% chance

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2025

99% chance

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029

99% chance

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028

98% chance

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2026

99% chance

This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)

3% chance

This question will resolve as YES on 2025-01-01

99% chance

This question resolves "YES" on January 1, 2025

99% chance