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@mods the little market that time forgot.

@polymathematic Looks like the linked market was at 50% or below on enough days that it was definitely not at 51% or higher for 3 days. Resolving No.

@SemioticRivalry November can resolve NO.

October can resolve

@creator August and September can resolve?

The linked market was at 50% or below at some point on every day in August so far.

@SemioticRivalry looks like some of these can resolve?

june/july are easy, they had long stretches (3+ days) where trump is well above 50%

march/april/may are less obvious. i'm interpreting "for at least 3 full days" to mean "3 consecutive days where his probability is always >50%". by that bar, i think they would be NO—even with the graph kinda zoomed out, every day or 2 you see it dip back to 50%, i can't find (consecutive) 3 full days where he never dips back to 50% or lower. but if you mean a lower bar (any 3 separate days, and not checking for tiny price drops from large trades), then it's possible those count.

i didn't mean consecutively, but i couldn't find 3 days in may