In which months will Trump's odds of winning be sustained above 50%?
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Plus
28
Ṁ8356
Jan 1
7%
November
Resolved
YES
July
Resolved
YES
June
Resolved
NO
May
Resolved
YES
April
Resolved
YES
March
Resolved
NO
August
Resolved
NO
September
Resolved
YES
October

51% or higher, for at least three full days, in this market.

https://manifold.markets/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres

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bought Ṁ250 November NO

@SemioticRivalry November can resolve NO.

bought Ṁ800 October YES

October can resolve

@creator August and September can resolve?

The linked market was at 50% or below at some point on every day in August so far.

bought Ṁ50 April NO

@SemioticRivalry looks like some of these can resolve?

june/july are easy, they had long stretches (3+ days) where trump is well above 50%

march/april/may are less obvious. i'm interpreting "for at least 3 full days" to mean "3 consecutive days where his probability is always >50%". by that bar, i think they would be NO—even with the graph kinda zoomed out, every day or 2 you see it dip back to 50%, i can't find (consecutive) 3 full days where he never dips back to 50% or lower. but if you mean a lower bar (any 3 separate days, and not checking for tiny price drops from large trades), then it's possible those count.

i didn't mean consecutively, but i couldn't find 3 days in may

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