If Trump posts a screenshot/link to Manifold, will the 2024 US Presidential Election swing by more than 10% within 24h?
9
95
Ṁ229Ṁ285
Nov 6
56%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Manifold's predictions sometimes go wrong when we get an influx of biased, one-time forecasters. Will this happen when Donald Trump posts a link to Manifold?
Related market:
https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-donald-trump-post-a-screenshot
Fineprints:
This resolves N/A if Donald Trump never posts a link to Manifold.
I'm referring to the official presidential election market, 2024 US Presidential Election.
Any official account on any platform (Instagram, Truth, X, etc.) counts.
Any swing of more than 10% in Trump's chances counts. (Exactly 10% is excluded.)
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