When will the winner of the 2024 presidential election be statistically certain based on prediction markets?
9
1kṀ5013
resolved Nov 8
100%98%
10 PM - Midnight, Election Day
0.2%
Before Polls Close, Election Day or Earlier
0.3%
4-8 PM, Election Day
0.3%
8-10 PM, Election Day
0.3%
Midnight - 2 AM, Election Day +1
0.3%
2 - 6 AM, Election Day +1
0.3%
6 AM - Noon, Election Day +1
0.2%
Noon to Midnight, Election Day +1
0.2%
Election Day +2
0.3%
Election Day +3 or Later

Compared to network projections, market odds converge faster to the eventual winner.

I will resolve the question to the Eastern time when the favored candidate begins to be priced at above 95% likely to win on either Manifold OR Polymarket, and sustained on average for another 6 hours. I will cross-check various platforms and reliable sources to confirm that the pricing is not an anomaly if there are technical issues or market manipulation.

See a fun chart below for what took place in 2016 vs 2020.

  • 2016: Trump became the presumed winner after 11 ET on election night

  • 2020: Biden didn't become the presumed winner until well after election night. (I didn't make the chart so I'm not sure the exact time he crossed the threshold. I don't think he ever made it above 95% on Predictit for weird reasons, but the chart shows other betting platforms.)

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