When will the winner of the 2024 presidential election be statistically certain based on prediction markets?

1kṀ5013

resolved Nov 8

100%98%

10 PM - Midnight, Election Day

0.2%

Before Polls Close, Election Day or Earlier

0.3%

4-8 PM, Election Day

0.3%

8-10 PM, Election Day

0.3%

Midnight - 2 AM, Election Day +1

0.3%

2 - 6 AM, Election Day +1

0.3%

6 AM - Noon, Election Day +1

0.2%

Noon to Midnight, Election Day +1

0.2%

Election Day +2

0.3%

Election Day +3 or Later

Compared to network projections, market odds converge faster to the eventual winner.

I will resolve the question to the Eastern time when the favored candidate begins to be priced at above 95% likely to win on either Manifold OR Polymarket, and sustained on average for another 6 hours. I will cross-check various platforms and reliable sources to confirm that the pricing is not an anomaly if there are technical issues or market manipulation.

See a fun chart below for what took place in 2016 vs 2020.

2016: Trump became the presumed winner after 11 ET on election night
2020: Biden didn't become the presumed winner until well after election night. (I didn't make the chart so I'm not sure the exact time he crossed the threshold. I don't think he ever made it above 95% on Predictit for weird reasons, but the chart shows other betting platforms.)