Compared to network projections, market odds converge faster to the eventual winner.

I will resolve the question to the Eastern time when the favored candidate begins to be priced at above 95% likely to win on either Manifold OR Polymarket, and sustained on average for another 6 hours. I will cross-check various platforms and reliable sources to confirm that the pricing is not an anomaly if there are technical issues or market manipulation.

See a fun chart below for what took place in 2016 vs 2020.

• 2016: Trump became the presumed winner after 11 ET on election night

• 2020: Biden didn't become the presumed winner until well after election night. (I didn't make the chart so I'm not sure the exact time he crossed the threshold. I don't think he ever made it above 95% on Predictit for weird reasons, but the chart shows other betting platforms.)