Compared to network projections, market odds converge faster to the eventual winner.
I will resolve the question to the Eastern time when the favored candidate begins to be priced at above 95% likely to win on either Manifold OR Polymarket, and sustained on average for another 6 hours. I will cross-check various platforms and reliable sources to confirm that the pricing is not an anomaly if there are technical issues or market manipulation.
See a fun chart below for what took place in 2016 vs 2020.
2016: Trump became the presumed winner after 11 ET on election night
2020: Biden didn't become the presumed winner until well after election night. (I didn't make the chart so I'm not sure the exact time he crossed the threshold. I don't think he ever made it above 95% on Predictit for weird reasons, but the chart shows other betting platforms.)
1,000
3.00@PlainBG you can download the polymarket price history, minute by minute. it reached >95% before mdnight (about ~11:43), and obviously held that average for the next 5 hours. resolves to 10pm-midnight, election day