By the end of 2025, will any AI beat Pokemon Emerald Version without human assistance?
41
92
790
2026
62%
chance

This market resolves Yes if any AI completes Pokemon Emerald Version on an unmodified cartridge or ROM by the end of 2025 without human assistance during the playthrough.

  • The run begins with the selection of "New Game" and ends upon entering the Hall of Fame.

  • Glitches are allowed.

  • Training on information related to the game, including gameplay footage, is allowed.

  • The AI is not allowed to access hidden information about the game state (e.g., RNG seed) that would not be available to a human player.

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bought Ṁ125 of NO

It could, yes, but I am doubtful that anyone will spend the resources solving specifically Pokemon Emerald.

bought Ṁ200 YES from 63% to 73%

Are there any limits on what the "AI" itself can be? E.G. if it's actually just a human-authored script that doesn't include any machine learning or neural networks, would it still qualify if it meets all the other requirements?

@nottelling2ccc Also, if you're allowed to set the initial state of the system and have guarantees about CPU timing and the like, then wouldn't the game be entirely deterministic? At that point, wouldn't a TAS be viable?

@nottelling2ccc If so, 34% is way too low.

@nottelling2ccc An entirely human-authored script with no machine learning wouldn't count as AI, and setting a known initial state would count as accessing hidden information about the game state.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@NathanShowell "no known initial state" (or at least a random RNG seed at startup) makes sense to me, but the requirement to be "an entirely human-authored script" does not.

Where do we draw the line between "AI" and "not AI"? Would using an OCR program count if it was a convolutional neural network? Would an OCR program count if it was matching the image onscreen to the most similar image in a very tiny (and labeled) dataset? Would a CNN that was trained to behave exactly like the previous model count?

I am confident that this is a 100% solvable problem without using any "machine learning" and any competent programmer could make a bot to solve this game. It's just a matter of time and tedium.

predicts YES

@nottelling2ccc Trying to ban solutions that "aren't machine learning" is A) silly, and B) not effective. You can easily take a "human-authored script" (i.e. non ML solution) and replace enough subsystems with ML counterparts, ship-of-Theseus style.

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