Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?
433
4kṀ170k
Dec 31
65%
chance

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares book "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" get on the NYT bestseller list this year?


Verification will be based on the official NYT Best Seller lists. Currently I understand that to mean this resolves YES if it makes the online list (top 35), but I intend it to mean whatever best maps to "can write, New York Times Bestseller on the book".

Number sold question: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/how-many-copies-of-yudkowsky-and-so?play=true

  • Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The criteria for the book appearing on the NYT Bestseller list are:

    • List frequency: weekly

    • Required placement: top 35

    • Eligible lists: any category

Technology
AI
World
Culture
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?
58% chance
How many pre-orders will Yudkowsky and Soares' book receive?
13,808
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
42% chance
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
51% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nate Soares appear on the 80,000 Hours Podcast before 31 December 2025?
74% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be quoted at a White House press briefing again by the end of 2025?
19% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
5% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?
63% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy