Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?
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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares book "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" get on the NYT bestseller list this year?


Verification will be based on the official NYT Best Seller lists published on The New York Times website. Currently on the online list (top 35), but whatever best maps to "can write, New York Times Bestseller on the book".

Number sold question: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/how-many-copies-of-yudkowsky-and-so?play=true

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My feeling is what gets on the NYT bestseller list is less to do with how true or important the book is, and more to do with vibes. I have a (baseless) feeling that most normal people will see a book with "everyone dies" in the title and not buy it.

Can you provide more firm criteria? Which lists? To what placement? Top 15? Top 5?

@bens o3's analysis: https://chatgpt.com/share/6824f9fe-503c-800f-9eb8-3bc5dec8ab47

Seems like the online list goes to 35?

@bens What do people use when they say it's an NYT bestseller?

@NathanpmYoung publishers use the internal, online-only 35 book long list. NYT publishes the top 15 on its website

Added M$2500 subsidy and boosted for $M10k. Can you add a link to the book from the description?

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