30,000-100,000 according to Gemini.

Base rates:

• Nate Soares has independently published another book, Replacing Guilt: Minding Our Way. It has 253 ratings on Goodreads. This doesn't map clearly to book sales, but most estimates are a factor of 1:10 or 1:20. Let's say 1:20 to be generous, giving 5000 total sales (but I'd guess that that's an overestimate, since rationalists are much more likely to review a book than the average reader, and the rationalist community is something of a built-in market for initial sales).

  • However, this book will be published by a traditional publisher, Little, Brown and Company.

• Similar books by similar authors, Life 3.0 by Tegmark and Superintelligence by Bostrom both had around 50k-100k sales in the first year

@Gabrielle Eliezer's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality has... whoah, 17,937 ratings on goodreads.

And a similar question, assuming that Yudkowsky and Soares can provide the numbers separately, is this looking only at physical sales, or at ebook + audiobook + physical? What if they do something like making the ebook free, or giving away mass copies?

The book releases September 16, 2025. Is this market about just 2025 sales, sales before September 16, 2026, sales before a year after this market was created (the current close date), or some other criteria?

@Gabrielle It would be very surprising to me if it meant something other than "sales before [ReleaseDate] + 1Y" (currently, September 16th, 2026). I agree the current close date being may 14th is a bit odd, but that seems most easily explained by Nathan just clicking the 'put the expiration 1 year out' button and forgetting to push it the extra few months.

@RobertCousineau I agree, but it's good to have it clarified before it becomes relevant.

@DaveK Betting NO hoping yes