How many copies of Yudkowsky and Soares' book will be sold in the first year, worldwide? (Compressed range)
18
200Ṁ1044
2026
197,879 copies
expected
20%
Below 50,000
35%
50,000 - 99,999
9%
100,000 - 199,999
8%
200,000 - 299,999
10%
300,000 - 399,999
6%
400,000 - 499,999
12%
500,000+

"If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies"

Resolution based on this other market. This market resolves exactly the same way, except with more granular buckets.

NYT bestseller question: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-yudkowsky-and-soares-book-get#

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Eliezer Yudkowsky
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
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Can you clarify the timeline?

@MachiNi Question title includes "in the first year"

@bohaska from what date (ebook? first print?)? The original market is ambiguous not only about this but about whether "first year" means first 365 days or first calendar year (2025). That's why I'm asking; I read the title...

@MachiNi This resolution is tied to the outcome of the other market. Please clarify with them.

@bohaska okay. Since they won’t answer I thought you might have a clue.

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