MANIFOLD
How many copies of Yudkowsky and Soares' book will be sold in the first year, worldwide? (Compressed range)
30
Ṁ200Ṁ2.9k
May 17
82,776 copies
expected
37%
Below 50,000
44%
50,000 - 99,999
13%
100,000 - 199,999
1.7%
200,000 - 299,999
1.4%
300,000 - 399,999
0.6%
400,000 - 499,999
1.4%
500,000+

"If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies"

Resolution based on this other market. This market resolves exactly the same way, except with more granular buckets.

NYT bestseller question: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-yudkowsky-and-soares-book-get#

Market context
AI
Eliezer Yudkowsky
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
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First print was 75k. I have no idea if they’ll need a second one or even exhaust the supply but it gives some rough ballpark of expectations.

@MachiNi that seems like a very ambitious number to hit

@Eliza he, the other market is not even bounded at 5 million. You never know!

Can you clarify the timeline?

@MachiNi Question title includes "in the first year"

@bohaska from what date (ebook? first print?)? The original market is ambiguous not only about this but about whether "first year" means first 365 days or first calendar year (2025). That's why I'm asking; I read the title...

@MachiNi This resolution is tied to the outcome of the other market. Please clarify with them.

@bohaska okay. Since they won’t answer I thought you might have a clue.

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