Resolution criteria
Each answer option will resolve to "Yes" if the individual or organization publicly endorses "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares. An endorsement is defined as a public statement of support or recommendation for the book, which can be verified through reputable sources such as official press releases, interviews, or social media posts. A repost of someone else's opinion counts (e.g., if OpenAI retweets a recommendation from Sam Altman, that counts as an endorsement). For media, unless an "editorial" is added, endorsement in a feature article counts. A mixed opinion that overall recommends the book and can be cited for a blurb counts. If no such endorsement is made by the resolution date, the answer will resolve to "No." The market will close on December 16, 2025, three months after the book's release date, and will resolve based on endorsements made up to that date.
Background
Eliezer Yudkowsky is an American artificial intelligence researcher and writer, known for his work on AI safety and decision theory. He is the founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI). Nate Soares is the president of MIRI and has co-authored several papers on AI safety. Their upcoming book, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, is scheduled for publication by Little, Brown and Company on September 16, 2025.
Market participants are asked to not insider-trade on No.
Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - "Manifold" refers to the company (official accounts/announcements), not user-generated content on the platform. Only endorsements from official Manifold channels count for this answer.
Added: for TV stations, the content on the air counts, not just the website contents.
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Neutral/impartial review, no recommendation/endorsement:
Apparently they gave a starred review a month ago and no one noticed
"This is a remarkable book. This book is worth reading. This is an important introduction to a set of ideas that will define our future in the coming years. Controversial, hotly debated, but you made the most powerful case that you could for your point of view and people need to reckon with it"
idk about this one. “The book is fascinating”
I know Will MacAskill is not an option but he didn’t like the book:
@metachirality I don't think it's a statement of support of the book. The review is generally mixed. From the market description:
"An endorsement is defined as a public statement of support or recommendation for the book, which can be verified through reputable sources such as official press releases, interviews, or social media posts. A repost of someone else's opinion counts (e.g., if OpenAI retweets a recommendation from Sam Altman, that counts as an endorsement). For media, unless an "editorial" is added, endorsement in a feature article counts. A mixed opinion that overall recommends the book and can be cited for a blurb counts."
uhm the publisher quoted him on Instagram: "in a world of mealy-mouthed pablum about “maximizing the benefits and minimizing the risks” of A.I., maybe they deserve some credit for putting their cards on the table."
i don't think "maybe they deserve some credit for putting their cards on the table" counts as overall recommending the book.
New Scientist guy not a fan https://www.newscientist.com/article/2495333-no-ai-isnt-going-to-kill-us-all-despite-what-this-new-book-says/
@MachiNi yep, though for a No resolution, there would need to be no fans at New Scientist until the market close date
@MachiNi yep, "make powerful arguments" etc., though actually I'd say this is kind of borderline
@ms they didn’t really say anything negative? And they seem to think more highly this book than the other one.
@MachiNi yeah, I guess they recommended it over the other book. Resolved to Yes. But I don’t feel good about it, because it would be wrong to say they “endorsed” it