Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
49
284
1k
2028
60%
chance

The magazines are:

Time

Wired

The Economist

Reader's Digest

Forbes

Rolling Stone

MIT Technology Review

Cosmopolitan

National Geographic

Sports Illustrated

Game Informer

Men's Health

Money

Vanity Fair

Newtype

Teen Vogue

Smithsonian

GQ

The Week

Better Homes and Gardens

People

The New Yorker

Fortune

Weekly Shonen Jump

American Rifleman

New Scientist

Esquire

He does not have to be the sole figure on the cover for it to count.

It does not have to be a photo or photorealistic to count - stylized depictions of Eliezer will count.

International/regional editions of magazines count so long as they are official and released in print.

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predicts NO

@Tripping How was this list generated?

@EliTyre Some publications were chosen because they could sound somewhat plausible, other publications were chosen because I thought they would be funny for people to consider, and in general I wanted to abuse a phenomenon Eliezer described once, where when you break a question into lots of distinct possible outcomes Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive it all sounds and allocates more probability.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Teen Vogue for sure

predicts NO

If he is literally printed on the cover of money (for example, one of the next euro bills), does that count?

@jskf nope, has to be the cover of Money magazine, which itself has to relaunch a print version

predicts NO

@Tripping What if the bill itself appears on the cover of one of the magazines?

@jskf Then that counts!

inb4 yudkowsky gets the sports illustrated curse